人類活動導(dǎo)致的溫室氣體排放加速了全球變暖。為實現(xiàn)《巴黎協(xié)定》的溫升控制目標(biāo)，中國政府承諾2030年的CO2排放強(qiáng)度較2005年下降60~65%。省際
碳排放權(quán)分配為實現(xiàn)我國2030目標(biāo)提供了可行的路徑。為此，本文基于2016~2030年我國碳排放配額總量核算結(jié)果，構(gòu)建改進(jìn)的零和收益數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析（ZSG-DEA）模型，制定科學(xué)合理的省際碳排放配額分配方案。結(jié)果顯示，通過削減一些北方省區(qū)的碳排放配額，可以將其DEA效率提升至最優(yōu)水平；相反，多數(shù)南方省區(qū)通過適當(dāng)增加碳排放配額，其DEA效率將提升至最優(yōu)。我們將各省區(qū)最終碳排放配額與其當(dāng)前碳排放規(guī)模進(jìn)行比較，發(fā)現(xiàn)
山西、
內(nèi)蒙古和
陜西等化石能源儲量豐富省區(qū)未來的碳排放空間方為負(fù)；相比之下，廣東、
湖南、
福建等省區(qū)擁有較為充裕的碳排放空間，而
黑龍江、
河北、
寧夏等省區(qū)則接近盈虧平衡點。研究表明，“共同但有區(qū)別的”碳排放配額分配方案是實現(xiàn)我國2030年
減排目標(biāo)的關(guān)鍵手段。研究成果為建立我國省區(qū)間協(xié)同減排機(jī)制、分解和落實《巴黎協(xié)定》提供了科學(xué)依據(jù)，同時也為不同尺度區(qū)域
碳減排責(zé)任的劃分提供了決策參考。
Accelerating global warming has suggested the importance of controlling greenhouse gas emissions associated with human activities. In striving to fulfill the Paris Agreement, China has announced its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) aimed at reducing its carbon dioxide (CO2) emission intensity by 60–65% in 2030 against the level of 2005. However, China’s INDCs cannot be fulfilled without formulating appropriate schemes for the allocation of carbon emission allowance (CEA) at sub-national scales. To help close the gap in our knowledge, this paper starts with measuring the overall CEA of China by 2030, and then proposes a science-based scheme for CEA allocation by developing an improved zero sum gains-data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) model. It demonstrates that the final CEA of some northern provinces can be cut down as compared to their initial shares and, conversely, most southern provinces experience an increase in their CEA. Comparing the final share of CEA by province with current carbon emissions, we observe that provinces with abundant energy reserves, such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, tend to be operating in a state of overshoot in terms of space for carbon emissions (SCE). In contrast, there remains SCE when it comes to Guangdong, Hunan, Fujian, etc. The remaining provinces, such as Heilongjiang, Hebei and Ningxia, are close to the break-even point. In view of the differing SCE of individual provinces, common but differentiated policies for CO2 emission control would be the key to achieving China’s INDCs. The research findings lay a scientific basis for the Chinese government to make its INDCs come true through inter-provincial collaboration on emission reduction, but also serve as a reference for fueling further scientific discussions and development of schemes for the allocation of responsibility for carbon emissions at multiple scales within and beyond China.
Keywords
· Paris Agreement
· Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
· multi-criteria allocation
· zero sum gains-data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA)
· carbon emission allowance (CEA)
· space for carbon emissions (SCE)
Fig. 1. Schematic of CEA allocation.
Fig. 5. Geographical distribution of provincial CEA through reallocation.
Fig. 6. Frequency distribution of provincial CEA through reallocation.
Fig. 7. The ranking of all the provinces based on the four principles.
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